Predictive validity of the Manchester Triage System: evaluation of outcomes of patients admitted to an emergency department.

OBJECTIVE to assess the predictive validity of the Manchester Triage System implemented in a municipal hospital in Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil. METHOD cohort prospective and analytical study. The sample of 300 patients was stratified by color groups. The outcome measured was the scores, obtained by patients in each classification group in the Therapeutic Intervention Scoring System--28, 24 hours after admission to the emergency department. RESULTS A total of 172 (57%) patients were men and the average age of all patients was 57.3 years old. The median score concerning the severity of their conditions was 6.5 points in the yellow group, 11.5 in the orange group, and 22 points in the red group. Statistically significant differences were found among the three groups (p<0.001). CONCLUSION the data confirm that the conditions of patients within the color groups progressed at different levels of severity.